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What to Expect: Probability & Statistics: Uncharted

Courses Probability & StatisticsWhat to Expect

What to Expect

Weight uncertain payoffs, compare spread, and make decisions that respect both averages and ruin risk.

Probability & Statistics
Unit 5 of 12
20 lessons
158 min
420 XP

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Lessons

20 total

1Average of What Could HappenInterpret expected value as a long-run average rather than a promised result.InteractiveConcept7 min20 XPOpen
2Weigh the OutcomesCompute expected value as a probability-weighted sum of payoffs.InteractiveConcept8 min20 XPOpen
3Three-Outcome GamesExtend expected value to several gains and losses.InteractiveConcept8 min20 XPOpen
4The Fair PriceSet a ticket price equal to its expected payout.InteractiveConcept8 min20 XPOpen
5EV WorkoutCompute expected values for varied two- and three-outcome games.InteractivePractice9 min20 XPOpen
6The House EdgeConnect a small negative expected value with long-run bankroll decline.InteractiveConcept8 min20 XPOpen
7Insurance Runs BackwardExplain why reducing catastrophic risk can justify a negative expected value.InteractiveConcept7 min20 XPOpen
8The Warranty QuestionCompute the buyer’s expected net value for an extended warranty.InteractiveConcept8 min20 XPOpen
9Same EV, Different FeelCompare equal-center games by their spread and decision context.InteractiveConcept7 min20 XPOpen
10How Wild Is the RideChange outcome spread while preserving the expected balance point.InteractiveConcept8 min20 XPOpen
11Expected Value of WaitingInterpret reciprocal success probability as an average waiting time.InteractiveConcept8 min20 XPOpen
12EV Workout IIEvaluate a fresh set of signed payoff distributions.InteractivePractice9 min20 XPOpen
13The Lottery LedgerCompute the expected net value of a lottery ticket including its price.InteractiveConcept8 min20 XPOpen
14Pay to Skip the LineInclude time value in an expected-value decision.InteractiveConcept7 min20 XPOpen
15One Big or Many SmallCompare outcome spread when the same stake is concentrated or divided.InteractiveConcept8 min20 XPOpen
16The St. Petersburg TeaseRecognize why an infinite expected payout need not imply an infinite decision price.InteractiveConcept8 min20 XPOpen
17Bet Small, Stay AliveExplain why stake size matters even when a bet has positive expected value.InteractiveConcept7 min20 XPOpen
18Decision WorkoutCompute expected values that inform practical risk decisions.InteractivePractice9 min20 XPOpen
19Expect the UnexpectedState the limits of expected value in one-shot and heavy-tail decisions.InteractiveConcept7 min20 XPOpen
20Expectation Mastery CheckPrice a risky game while interpreting its spread and decision limits.InteractiveMastery check9 min40 XPOpen

When One Thing Changes Another The Shapes of Chance